Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cd2…082f world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$7
other 21% +$2
crypto 8% $0
sports 7% −$4
tech 4% $0
politics 4% $0
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.5% 33% 0% -12.2%
all 29 -6.4% -15.4% 45% 7% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 7% -11.2%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 −$3 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 −$3 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $2 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $3 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $14 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $13 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $33 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $35 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $3 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $8 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $12 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 30d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 342d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 363d
Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 BUY No 97¢ $6 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 93¢ $6 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 95¢ $6 382d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records