Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1cd1…052c sports 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%264W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$31
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$37
other 11% +$1
politics 7% $0
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 34% -17.0%
≤30d 210 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 37% -12.2%
≤90d 456 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 39% -11.7%
all 468 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -12.0%
10% -23.1% 28% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 21% -28.1%
20% -37.3% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses264 / 204
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)468 / 475
History coverage109d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Moerani Bouzige 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Qiu Yu Ye 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 42¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 86¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +178%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $3 −$1 -21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Yannik Kelm Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
ITF San Gregorio: Dunja Maric vs Nadia Podoroska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Qiu Yu Ye 93¢ $2 24m
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 95¢ $2 36m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $2 6h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 92¢ $2 11h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Raffaele Ciurnelli 78¢ $2 13h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $3 16h
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 94¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 24¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 59¢ $1 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 63¢ $0 25h
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi BUY Sena Okabe 18¢ $1 27h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 42¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $1 29h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 13¢ $2 36h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 63¢ $5 36h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 68¢ $3 37h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 49¢ $2 37h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 86¢ $2 41h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 33¢ $2 43h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 86¢ $2 44h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 45h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 30¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.62 · official $15.62 (match) · 1650 history records