Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cd1…8af7 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$716 (-53%) realized −$716 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.7% +3.7% 50% 50% +11.0%
≤30d 6 +14.7% +3.7% 50% 50% +11.0%
≤90d 47 -32.1% -38.6% 26% 23% -58.8%
all 47 -32.1% -38.6% 26% 23% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 23% -58.8%
10% -44.5% 23% -62.7%
15% -49.8% 15% -66.3%
20% -54.7% 15% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage86d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 06 $133 −$124 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 04 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $10 +$4 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $25 −$11 -45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 28 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 28 $110 −$42 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 20-26? Apr 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $16 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 21? Apr 21 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 17 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 13-19? Apr 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 17 $136 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 17 $65 +$60 +92%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? Apr 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 10? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 10? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $25 +$20 +78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 7? Apr 07 $2 +$4 +198%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $6 +$13 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 34¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 39¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 40¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 26¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 60¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 46¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 53¢ $5 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 67¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 49¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $98 52d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 52d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? BUY Down 54¢ $5 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records