Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cd0…4516 crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,783 (+8%) realized +$4,095 · open −$312
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%92W / 110L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$754
14 days+$871
30 days+$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,787
sports 16% +$1,310
crypto 11% +$670
tech 8% +$440
politics 7% −$972
economics 3% −$530
world 3% +$81
weather 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +48.6% +34.4% 75% 75% +58.8%
≤30d 20 +11.1% +0.5% 60% 55% +21.6%
≤90d 82 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 44% +12.6%
all 202 +5.4% -4.7% 46% 44% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 44% -0.2%
10% -13.8% 43% -9.8%
15% -22.1% 40% -18.5%
20% -29.7% 37% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$75 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$8,127
Realized+$4,095
Unrealized−$312
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses92 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions7
Markets (closed)202 / 209
History coverage324d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,844 $5,916 +$71 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 50¢ 34¢ $1,496 $1,029 −$467 (-31%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 71¢ 92¢ $541 $702 +$162 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $246 $214 −$33 (-13%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $134 $136 +$3 (+2%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $127 $64 −$63 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$164 +164%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 16 $77 +$127 +164%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$37 -72%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 15 $36 +$9 +25%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $508 +$513 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $198 +$68 +34%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $143 −$141 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $210 +$240 +114%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$21 +83%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $104 +$152 +146%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $209 +$109 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 25 $112 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $104 +$56 +54%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $152 −$150 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 18 $126 −$49 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 16 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 15 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $26 −$13 -49%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 15 $94 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $26 +$31 +119%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $120 +$113 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 13 $189 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 12 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 11 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 11 $6 −$5 -94%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 11 $277 +$164 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 09 $139 −$65 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 09 $104 +$108 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $264 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 48¢ $718 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $100 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 2d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 64¢ $204 3d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 23¢ $77 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 68¢ $44 4d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $169 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 89¢ $266 7d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $143 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $210 12d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $325 13d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $93 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 65¢ $101 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $106 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? SELL No 57¢ $318 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY No 35¢ $209 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,126.63 · official $8,127.00 (match) · 534 history records