Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1cce…6681 crypto 1716 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,276 (+2%) realized +$3,276 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%1667W / 49L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 528 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 5% -10.2%
≤30d 854 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 1716 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 4% -9.4%
all 1716 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 4% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$66 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1667 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1716 / 1716
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1716 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$4 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $142 −$142 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $142 −$142 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$5 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $134 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $107 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $134 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $47 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $65 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $72 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $70 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $72 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $70 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $134 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $57 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records