Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cca…50e9
crypto · 463 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14,776 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,831 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$14,831
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses163 / 595
Open positions1
Markets (closed)758 / 463
History coverage12d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day279.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 758 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,460
7 days−$15,545
14 days−$14,831
30 days−$14,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $87 $72 −$15 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$24 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$2,906
tech 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 653 -50.2% -54.9% 18% 17% -51.8%
≤30d 758 -35.1% -41.3% 22% 20% -42.5%
≤90d 758 -35.1% -41.3% 22% 20% -42.5%
all 758 -35.1% -41.3% 22% 20% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover279.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.3% 20% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.9% 19% -48.0%
15% -52.0% 19% -53.1%
20% -56.7% 18% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.62 · official $71.62 (match) · 3500 history records