Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cc5…b199 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-5%) realized −$30 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.0% -34.8% 54% 38% -11.9%
≤30d 13 -28.0% -34.8% 54% 38% -11.9%
≤90d 13 -28.0% -34.8% 54% 38% -11.9%
all 13 -28.0% -34.8% 54% 38% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 38% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 31% -20.4%
15% -46.8% 23% -28.1%
20% -52.0% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Up 75¢ 62¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $128 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$62 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $148 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $33 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $94 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $46 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $116 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.33 · official $95.33 · 31 history records