Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cc3…51fc crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,408 (-26%) realized −$1,406 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$1,264
14 days−$1,118
30 days−$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$789
sports 40% −$437
other 12% −$348
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -28.6% -35.4% 27% 22% -59.9%
≤30d 77 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 25% -43.7%
≤90d 104 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 28% -37.3%
all 116 -15.9% -23.9% 34% 29% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 29% -36.2%
10% -31.2% 28% -42.3%
15% -37.8% 23% -47.9%
20% -43.9% 16% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 76
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage231d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$16 -72%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$38 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$19 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$12 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$13 -47%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$92 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $258 −$258 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$62 -81%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$54 +106%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -91%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 39m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 44m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 44m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $66 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $47 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $35 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $106 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $49 5d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 28¢ $42 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.12 · official $68.12 (match) · 303 history records