Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1cc1…8bbf world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 24% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
politics 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 60% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 60% 7% -9.5%
all 48 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage432d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+35%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $13 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $86 −$4 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 10 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 06 $21 $0 -1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 14 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $46 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $46 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $3 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $2 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $49 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.23 · official $50.23 (match) · 161 history records