Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1cbd…7f8a crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-2%) realized −$166 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$383
14 days−$389
30 days−$553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$574
economics 0% −$20
other 0% −$4
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.9% -37.5% 30% 22% -24.5%
≤30d 105 -12.3% -20.6% 45% 30% -15.7%
≤90d 110 -16.3% -24.3% 43% 29% -15.8%
all 115 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 28% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 28% -16.1%
10% -33.2% 17% -24.1%
15% -39.7% 12% -31.4%
20% -45.6% 9% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 67
Open positions11
Markets (closed)115 / 127
History coverage242d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$101 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $98 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $98 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $242 −$36 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $229 +$70 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $163 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $267 −$76 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $234 −$100 -43%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$8 -24%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $94 −$12 -13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $222 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $59 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 29 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 29 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 29 $85 −$29 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $53 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 29 $53 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 29 $53 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $118 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $98 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.73 · official $13.73 (match) · 405 history records