Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cb9…54c6 sports 52 markets active 6h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 17% −$8
other 3% −$1
sports 1% −$76
tech 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 14% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 40 -9.4% -18.0% 28% 15% -15.6%
all 51 -7.5% -16.3% 27% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 12% -10.0%
10% -24.3% 12% -18.6%
15% -31.6% 12% -26.5%
20% -38.3% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage580d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $3 +$2 +93%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $3 +$3 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $3 +$3 +72%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $7 +$1 +10%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $6 +$3 +50%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Apr 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Senators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $26 +$18 +70%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 25 $32 +$19 +59%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $87 +$2 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,532 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $31 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $5 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 29d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $5 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.32 · official $30.32 (match) · 207 history records