Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1cb6…93f6 crypto 1262 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,551 (-8%) realized −$16,555 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%1084W / 159L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$986
politics 17% +$1,002
world 13% −$3,539
sports 12% −$1,247
other 7% −$84
tech 0% +$71
culture 0% +$14
finance 0% +$25
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.1% -16.8% 64% 15% -21.7%
≤30d 148 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 18% -13.3%
≤90d 643 -3.8% -12.9% 85% 12% -10.0%
all 1243 -1.6% -11.0% 87% 11% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -11.5%
10% -19.5% 5% -20.0%
15% -27.3% 3% -27.7%
20% -34.4% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$97 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$2,344
Realized−$16,555
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1084 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1243 / 1262
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$173
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $358 $346 −$13 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $312 $344 +$32 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $229 $236 +$7 (+3%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $179 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 95¢ $169 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 76¢ 96¢ $98 $123 +$25 (+26%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 96¢ 87¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? No 97¢ 57¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luis Díaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? No 94¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $240 −$118 -49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $947 −$795 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $984 −$34 -4%
Will Trump say "Obama" this week? Jun 15 $73 +$11 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $300 −$180 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $282 −$178 -63%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 15 $81 +$22 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,222 −$14 -1%
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? Jun 15 $140 +$24 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $225 +$14 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $2,326 +$18 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $273 +$15 +6%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 14 $40 −$9 -24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $193 +$5 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 +$5 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 11 $18 −$8 -46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $158 −$100 -63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $171 +$6 +4%
ITF Maanshan: Koki Matsuda vs Artem Alekseychuk Jun 10 $153 +$8 +5%
ITF Tokyo: Funa Kozaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 10 $145 +$7 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $199 +$17 +9%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Lynch win the first round of the South Carolina Republican S Jun 09 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gover Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Rom Reddy win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Governor Jun 09 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 09 $180 −$2 -1%
ITF Tokyo: Riyo Yoshida vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Hyu Kawanishi vs Sora Fukuda Jun 09 $130 +$5 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 6m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 96¢ $100 7m
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 97¢ $49 10m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 59¢ $93 16m
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 22m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $99 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 98¢ $100 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $49 9h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 98¢ $100 9h
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 9h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $130 9h
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 42¢ $122 9h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 98¢ $100 9h
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? BUY No 97¢ $30 9h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 91¢ $110 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $100 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $70 9h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $65 9h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 79¢ $101 9h
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $120 9h
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? BUY No 97¢ $80 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $240 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $51 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $101 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $947 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $947 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,343.70 · official $2,343.70 (match) · 3500 history records