Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cb5…2d03 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-14%) realized −$248 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$80
14 days−$268
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$234
other 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 42% -19.2%
≤30d 44 +3.8% -6.1% 45% 43% -22.2%
≤90d 44 +3.8% -6.1% 45% 43% -22.2%
all 44 +3.8% -6.1% 45% 43% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 43% -22.2%
10% -15.1% 41% -29.7%
15% -23.3% 39% -36.5%
20% -30.8% 27% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$248
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage17d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 83¢ 82¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 1 Winner MIBR Academy 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $50 −$13 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $45 −$12 -26%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $48 −$9 -19%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger Jun 27 $47 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $23 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Honor of Kings: Qing Jiu Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth League Jun 25 $14 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 25 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $60 +$16 +26%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $74 −$14 -19%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $92 +$9 +10%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $9 −$6 -70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 23 $35 +$32 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +46%
Maestrelli vs. Basing: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $17 +$28 +163%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 22 $72 −$54 -76%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 +$6 +109%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage Jun 21 $4 +$2 +38%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$5 +165%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $64 +$52 +81%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 19 $46 +$19 +42%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $8 +$29 +375%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $135 −$132 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $117 −$2 -2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $147 −$5 -3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$34 +68%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $73 +$35 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $54 −$14 -26%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 83¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 34¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 62¢ $48 42h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 62¢ $0 42h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $50 42h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 51¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 53¢ $47 47h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 67¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL eternal premium 64¢ $10 2d
Honor of Kings: Qing Jiu Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth League SELL Qing Jiu Club 76¢ $14 2d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 58¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 73¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 67¢ $10 2d
Honor of Kings: Qing Jiu Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth League BUY Qing Jiu Club 77¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 73¢ $18 2d
Honor of Kings: Qing Jiu Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth League BUY Qing Jiu Club 76¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 79¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 61¢ $74 4d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou BUY The Huns Esports 83¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou BUY The Huns Esports 80¢ $18 4d
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Team Liquid Academy $3 4d
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Team Liquid Academy 15¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 33¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 51¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $31 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5d
Maestrelli vs. Basing: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 100¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.12 · official $88.14 (match) · 103 history records