Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1C 0x1cb4…0425 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized −$11 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$118
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% $0
other 16% +$49
sports 6% −$17
finance 5% +$6
world 3% −$7
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.2% +6.9% 67% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 19 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 47% -19.9%
≤90d 39 +11.5% +0.8% 46% 44% -11.4%
all 39 +11.5% +0.8% 46% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 44% -11.4%
10% -8.8% 36% -19.9%
15% -17.6% 36% -27.6%
20% -25.7% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage81d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 98¢ $65 $79 +$14 (+21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 63¢ 90¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+171%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $14 $19 +$6 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 10 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$7 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $22 −$11 -50%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 05 $26 +$14 +57%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +11%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 04 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $39 +$8 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 04 $11 −$9 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 02 $34 −$21 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +72%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $55 +$48 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 16 $33 +$12 +37%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 12 $1 $0 -23%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $61 +$6 +11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 4 2026? May 06 $9 +$19 +204%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $24 −$9 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 24 $39 −$13 -33%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 24 $65 +$29 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $15 +$27 +176%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 12 $57 −$9 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 03 $60 +$22 +36%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 03 $6 −$2 -31%
Set Handicap: Agut (-1.5) vs Droguet (+1.5) Mar 30 $8 −$2 -21%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 2 Winner Mar 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner Mar 30 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 54m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $66 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 4d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 53¢ $23 4d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 53¢ $5 5d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 53¢ $5 5d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 53¢ $5 5d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 53¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $64 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 63¢ $0 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 63¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 63¢ $8 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 63¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.67 · official $190.67 (match) · 144 history records