Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1cb4…3839 crypto 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,108 (-6%) realized −$3,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%115W / 147L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$183
14 days−$183
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,403
crypto 42% −$1,728
other 6% −$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 46% -25.3%
≤30d 13 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 46% -25.3%
≤90d 215 -9.3% -18.0% 43% 41% -16.4%
all 262 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -15.7%
10% -24.4% 39% -23.8%
15% -31.7% 38% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 34% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$140 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses115 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage91d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$83 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $131 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$75 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $127 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $157 −$108 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$21 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 21 $198 −$32 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 18 $54 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 18 $175 −$48 -28%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 18 $100 +$51 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 18 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 18 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 18 $42 +$47 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 18 $34 +$29 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 18 $50 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 18 $75 −$48 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 18 $100 −$76 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 05 $81 −$79 -98%
Predators vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Apr 05 $288 −$206 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 05 $200 −$192 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 05 $314 +$174 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 05 $199 +$114 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 05 $142 −$137 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 05 $168 −$165 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 04 $92 −$46 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 04 $81 +$59 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 04 $61 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 04 $80 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 04 $170 −$123 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 04 $200 −$132 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 04 $426 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 04 $127 +$167 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 04 $100 −$90 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 04 $200 −$181 -90%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $497 −$489 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 04 $683 −$683 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $135 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $14 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $141 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $126 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $19 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $43 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 633 history records