Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cb4…855f sports 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%34W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$2
politics 27% −$3
other 21% −$6
crypto 9% −$3
economics 5% −$1
world 4% $0
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 194 -1.1% -10.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses34 / 160
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage166d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $473 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $135 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $128 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $91 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $41 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $41 26d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 33d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 33d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 58d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 58d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $42 58d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $42 59d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 59d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 59d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $38 59d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $38 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 60d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $39 60d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $39 60d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $35 60d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $35 60d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $41 60d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $41 61d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 61d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $41 61d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 61d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 61d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.91 · official $36.91 (match) · 710 history records