Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1cb3…f68f crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-3%) realized −$30 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$63
other 8% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.2% -20.6% 72% 48% -11.8%
≤30d 25 -12.2% -20.6% 72% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 25 -12.2% -20.6% 72% 48% -11.8%
all 25 -12.2% -20.6% 72% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 48% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 32% -20.2%
15% -35.1% 20% -27.9%
20% -41.5% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 68¢ 50¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $138 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $68 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $42 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.13 · official $85.69 · 54 history records