Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1cb1…72e0 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$413 (-60%) realized −$413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$463
other 29% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 67% -71.5%
≤30d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 67% -71.5%
≤90d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 67% -71.5%
all 6 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 67% -71.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 67% -71.5%
10% -10.0% 50% -74.3%
15% -18.7% 33% -76.7%
20% -26.7% 17% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$463 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$8 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $493 −$463 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $34 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $30 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $493 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.36 · official $65.36 (match) · 15 history records