Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cb0…6793 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$173 (+2%) realized +$276 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$38
14 days+$102
30 days+$2,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$516
other 28% +$118
crypto 20% +$29
politics 18% −$625
culture 3% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 43% -20.1%
≤30d 34 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 47% +96.7%
≤90d 77 +2.2% -7.5% 45% 44% +9.6%
all 85 +16.3% +5.2% 46% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 45% -6.9%
10% -4.8% 44% -15.8%
15% -14.0% 44% -23.9%
20% -22.5% 42% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$73 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1,950
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 46
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)85 / 93
History coverage161d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $618 $619 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $514 $499 −$14 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $284 $275 −$9 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $274 $272 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $149 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $164 $137 −$27 (-17%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$60 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$59 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$27 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $57 +$57 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$61 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$57 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$35 +76%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $439 −$96 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $46 +$42 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $49 +$45 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $49 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $49 +$39 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $19 +$15 +78%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $297 +$2,478 +835%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $19 +$18 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 23 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $35 +$24 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 17 $18 +$16 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $18 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 10 $17 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $18 +$18 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 08 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $169 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $292 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $526 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $153 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $281 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $632 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $28 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $44 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $44 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $45 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,949.72 · official $1,949.72 (match) · 225 history records