Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1C 0x1caf…6438 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$154 (+28%) realized +$156 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$184per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+39.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+53.8%	+39.1%	100%	100%	+37.4%
≤30d	2	+53.8%	+39.1%	100%	100%	+37.4%
≤90d	2	+53.8%	+39.1%	100%	100%	+37.4%
all	2	+53.8%	+39.1%	100%	100%	+37.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.1%	100%	+37.4%
10%	+25.8%	100%	+24.2%
15%	+13.7%	100%	+12.2%
20%	+2.5%	50%	+1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$76 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$256

Realized+$156

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$184

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$259	$256	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$180	+$82	+46%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 16	$111	+$69	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$262	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$180	9h
Norway leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$180	10h
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	61¢	$111	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.26 · official $256.30 (match) · 5 history records