Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cad…d87d world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 26% −$3
sports 9% +$4
politics 7% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 8% -9.2%
≤30d 18 -1.8% -11.2% 17% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 5% -10.0%
all 36 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 8% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage302d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $69 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$4 +13%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -27%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $24 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $24 −$3 -12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 24 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $22 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records