Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ca9…5bc5 crypto 1407 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$348 (-6%) realized −$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%807W / 667L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$28
14 days+$99
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$51
sports 0% −$5
weather 0% +$14
other 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 41% -8.0%
≤30d 843 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 48% -13.7%
≤90d 1474 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 48% -13.7%
all 1474 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 48% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 41% -22.0%
15% -22.1% 34% -29.5%
20% -29.7% 27% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses807 / 667
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1474 / 1407
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1474 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$1 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$7 +2788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records