Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1ca8…6ffe sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$45
other 24% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 68% -7.2%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 68% -7.2%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 68% -7.2%
all 19 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 68% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 68% -7.2%
10% -17.9% 53% -16.1%
15% -25.9% 32% -24.2%
20% -33.1% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ 81¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+57%)
Moutet vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 100¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 −$40 -49%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $72 +$9 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$13 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 +$15 +32%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 +$13 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$16 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $46 +$10 +22%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $30 −$27 -87%
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $58 +$31 +54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$26 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Moutet vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $12 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $25 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) SELL Fritz 100¢ $36 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 55¢ $20 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $40 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $81 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 99¢ $61 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 91¢ $20 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $72 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $59 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $45 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $38 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY 61¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 6¢ $4 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $9 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $9 3d
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $5 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $10 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $11 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 26¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $40 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.71 · official $62.67 (match) · 45 history records