Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1ca8…e1e7 crypto 2197 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%1268W / 891L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$51
14 days−$5
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -40.7% -46.3% 47% 29% -29.8%
≤30d 931 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 54% -5.6%
≤90d 2159 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 54% -10.3%
all 2159 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 54% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 51% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 49% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 46% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1268 / 891
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2159 / 2197
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2159 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 80,000 on May 2, 11AM ET? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 80,400 on May 2, 11AM ET? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records