Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1ca8…1a39 sports 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 191d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$71,538 (-9%) realized −$71,618 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%133W / 157L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,714per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$123
14 days−$1,491
30 days−$1,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$101,395
other 21% +$27,216
crypto 1% −$417
politics 0% −$731
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 124 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -20.3%
≤90d 124 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -20.3%
all 290 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 45% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 45% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 43% -26.0%
15% -35.3% 38% -33.1%
20% -41.6% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$3,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,024 vs −$2,195 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$71,618
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses133 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage192d ⚠
Avg bet$2,714
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 24¢ 56¢ $59 $140 +$80 (+135%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $157 +$56 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$86 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $87 −$83 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $125 +$125 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $178 +$321 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $159 −$151 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $144 +$120 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$45 +405%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$55 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$70 +76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$119 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$132 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $30 +$13 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $48 +$52 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $169 +$51 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $173 −$164 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $189 −$180 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $97 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $173 +$77 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $191 +$209 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $154 +$333 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $74 +$326 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $165 −$158 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $122 +$121 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $80 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.72 · official $122.43 · 3500 history records