Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1ca7…49ef politics 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$22
politics 42% −$23
economics 4% −$2
sports 3% +$65
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +0.3% -9.2% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 115 +1.1% -8.5% 6% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$590) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$1 · ×17.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage112d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $336 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $338 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $324 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $706 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $263 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $341 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $342 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $356 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 2h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $52 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $338 22d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $338 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $324 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $324 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $270 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 25d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $315 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.98 · official $48.98 (match) · 359 history records