Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1ca3…afc7 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$294 (-10%) realized −$293 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%53W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2
crypto 35% +$23
other 11% −$315
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 52 +2.1% -7.6% 98% 2% -7.4%
≤90d 52 +2.1% -7.6% 98% 2% -7.4%
all 56 -0.0% -9.5% 95% 2% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -18.6%
10% -18.2% 2% -26.4%
15% -26.1% 2% -33.5%
20% -33.3% 2% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$106 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses53 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage132d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 2AM ET May 26 $22 +$22 +100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 23? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 47m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 48m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 24h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.52 · official $43.52 (match) · 120 history records