Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ca0…cb82 sports 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,177 (-31%) realized −$2,208 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%64W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$487
7 days−$487
14 days−$487
30 days−$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$957
other 37% −$1,048
finance 7% −$60
world 5% −$11
economics 1% −$52
crypto 1% −$36
politics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -76.3% -78.5% 15% 15% -82.3%
≤30d 26 -55.0% -59.3% 15% 15% -69.1%
≤90d 170 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 19% -51.5%
all 217 -22.7% -30.0% 29% 28% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 28% -38.9%
10% -36.7% 25% -44.7%
15% -42.8% 23% -50.1%
20% -48.4% 18% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$2,208
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses64 / 153
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions8
Markets (closed)217 / 225
History coverage130d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 35¢ 52¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 80¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Yes 15¢ 9¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 10¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +45%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $15 +$29 +188%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$28 +140%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $25 −$25 -99%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Jarrod Bowen: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 03 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10m
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $40 1h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $57 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $25 22h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $25 22h
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $12 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $8 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 5¢ $5 26h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $26 26h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $26 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 26h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 28h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $26 28h
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 28h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 28h
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 28h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.36 · official $216.26 (match) · 507 history records