Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c9c…6469 sports 688 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,039 (+4%) realized +$1,023 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%472W / 211L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$207
14 days+$357
30 days+$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$903
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +4.6% -5.3% 72% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 256 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 36% -7.5%
≤90d 672 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 41% -6.8%
all 683 +2.6% -7.2% 69% 41% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 41% -6.7%
10% -16.1% 25% -15.6%
15% -24.2% 15% -23.8%
20% -31.6% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses472 / 211
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions5
Markets (closed)683 / 688
History coverage111d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ 100¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ 100¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Top Esports Challenger 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$6 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$9 +23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $125 +$11 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $76 −$17 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$10 +187%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$1 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$7 -24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$28 -70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$17 +84%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $61 +$18 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$25 -63%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$19 +9%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $401 +$20 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$16 +8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $551 +$4 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $141 −$6 -4%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $121 −$2 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $400 +$8 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $200 +$7 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $30 −$7 -22%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $20 −$7 -36%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$3 +17%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 0¢ $1 2m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $108 12m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 47¢ $10 43m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 1¢ $1 47m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $54 59m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $100 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $100 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $113 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $100 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $100 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 92¢ $25 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $10 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 39¢ $7 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $10 22h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $34 22h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $15 22h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $20 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 42¢ $9 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $10 23h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $50 23h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $15 23h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $9 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 47¢ $10 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $32 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $10 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.35 · official $228.35 (match) · 2526 history records