Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c9c…aec8 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+3%) realized +$109 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%23W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$338
7 days+$3
14 days+$587
30 days+$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$255
crypto 30% −$312
sports 16% +$739
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -32.7% -39.1% 24% 24% -9.3%
≤30d 61 +4.1% -5.8% 26% 26% +14.6%
≤90d 79 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 27% -0.2%
all 86 -8.7% -17.4% 27% 26% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 26% -4.0%
10% -25.3% 23% -13.2%
15% -32.5% 20% -21.6%
20% -39.1% 19% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$24 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses23 / 63
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage107d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $66 $56 −$10 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $302 +$98 +32%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$213 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $252 +$115 +46%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$133 +650%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $214 −$175 -82%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -73%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$336 +655%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$168 +165%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$52 +511%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $127 −$25 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $24 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $366 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $367 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $68 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.20 · official $56.20 (match) · 144 history records