Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c9a…8681 other 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% +$2
other 24% $0
sports 17% $0
politics 17% +$1
culture 14% −$3
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +8.9% -1.5% 62% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 8 +8.9% -1.5% 62% 12% -8.6%
all 37 +0.1% -9.4% 35% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage318d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Sep 24 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 10 $1 $0 -40%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 08 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $34 $0 -0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 -3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $57 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $24 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 13d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 94¢ $8 311d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $10 311d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 311d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.34 · official $28.34 (match) · 125 history records