trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-14%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $5 | −$1 (-15%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 50¢ | 48¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 24¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-58%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 8¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $140 | $0 | −$140 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? | Jun 07 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? | Jun 05 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | +$11 | +208% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | +$5 | +90% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 05 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? | Jun 04 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? | Jun 04 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? | Jun 04 | $5 | +$34 | +632% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $142 | −$140 | -98% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff | May 03 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 0% | -12.0% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +18.6% | +7.3% | 33% | 25% | -64.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +9.5% | -0.9% | 31% | 23% | -65.7% |
| all | 13 | +9.5% | -0.9% | 31% | 23% | -65.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.9% | 23% | -65.7% |
| 10% | -10.4% | 23% | -69.0% |
| 15% | -19.1% | 23% | -72.0% |
| 20% | -27.0% | 23% | -74.7% |