Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c99…f4a4 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 39% −$15
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% +$52
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 +4.8% -5.2% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 128 +3.3% -6.5% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.5% 5% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×14.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage114d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $478 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $183 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $399 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $346 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $408 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $422 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $430 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $440 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 27h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 22d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $183 22d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $183 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $237 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $237 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 25d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $184 25d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $184 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 27d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 27d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $226 27d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $226 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $199 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $32.99 (match) · 385 history records