Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c98…186d sports 815 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,133 (-4%) realized −$10,931 · open −$202
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%401W / 411L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$2,351est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$587
7 days−$845
14 days−$888
30 days−$3,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$16,225
other 10% +$1,508
crypto 0% −$14
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 49% -19.0%
≤30d 218 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 46% -15.2%
≤90d 665 -10.4% -19.0% 51% 48% -16.9%
all 812 -10.4% -19.0% 49% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 47% -13.8%
10% -26.7% 42% -22.0%
15% -33.8% 34% -29.6%
20% -40.3% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$331 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$10,931
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses401 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,351
Open positions3
Markets (closed)812 / 815
History coverage130d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 43¢ 44¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) INOX Division 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) SPARTA 21¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $203 $0 −$203 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 377 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) Jun 17 $9 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $19 +$9 +48%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $238 +$227 +95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $155 +$9 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $114 +$43 +38%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $38 +$125 +326%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $111 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $468 −$461 -99%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 16 $171 −$167 -98%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $69 +$36 +53%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$291 -57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $139 −$137 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $213 +$50 +24%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $174 +$117 +67%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $72 +$67 +93%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $108 −$106 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $488 +$124 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $526 +$136 +26%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $480 +$264 +55%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$28 +188%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $112 −$10 -9%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $179 +$58 +32%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $113 +$67 +59%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $106 −$104 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $168 −$166 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $70 −$69 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $72 +$123 +172%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $178 +$93 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $181 +$366 +203%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$51 +65%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $62 +$200 +324%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $178 −$176 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $172 +$173 +101%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $247 −$188 -76%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $126 +$140 +111%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $180 −$178 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $178 +$57 +32%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $176 −$175 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $178 −$176 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $108 −$106 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $180 −$178 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $46 1h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $465 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 67¢ $19 11h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 21¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 73¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $127 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $180 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $26 12h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $69 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $165 12h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $29 14h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $114 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $67 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $4 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $72 21h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 26¢ $18 21h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY Lindorfitos 27¢ $12 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $155 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $108 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $70 22h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 29¢ $52 22h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 27¢ $4 22h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 27¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $105 22h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $301 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.88 · official $50.88 (match) · 2601 history records