Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c98…47b9 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+4%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$8
other 39% +$23
sports 6% +$5
politics 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 0% -8.2%
all 31 +6.5% -3.7% 39% 10% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 10% -6.1%
10% -12.9% 10% -15.1%
15% -21.3% 6% -23.3%
20% -29.0% 3% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.29 per $1 lost it wins $7.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage283d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $47 +$5 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $143 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $32 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $21 +$26 +127%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $2 +$1 +42%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $71 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $71 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $53 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $5 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $72 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $9 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records