Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c97…dc62 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$17
politics 28% −$10
sports 9% +$9
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage135d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $172 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $376 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $390 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $420 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $131 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $441 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $292 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $467 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 29h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 25d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $125 27d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $125 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $173 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $173 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $167 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $167 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $161 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $161 31d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 32d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $146 32d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $146 33d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $131 34d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $131 35d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $153 35d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $153 35d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $165 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.95 · official $64.95 (match) · 346 history records