Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c95…01c4 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$659 (-50%) realized −$726 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$606
other 29% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 10% -78.3%
≤30d 10 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 10% -78.3%
≤90d 10 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 10% -78.3%
all 10 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 10% -78.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.3% 10% -78.3%
10% -80.4% 10% -80.4%
15% -82.3% 10% -82.3%
20% -84.0% 10% -84.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$97 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$726
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 38¢ 70¢ $91 $170 +$78 (+86%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $81 $77 −$4 (-5%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $82 $76 −$7 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$136 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $82 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $84 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $86 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $90 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $92 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $93 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $93 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $98 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $98 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $97 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $100 24h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $102 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.29 · official $405.29 (match) · 24 history records