Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c92…3e42 crypto 905 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%826W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$59
14 days+$111
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
sports 0% +$33
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 588 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 1% -10.7%
≤90d 905 -0.8% -10.2% 91% 2% -9.7%
all 905 -0.8% -10.2% 91% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses826 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)905 / 905
History coverage58d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 905 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2253 history records