Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c8f…3403 politics 40 markets active 7d ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$2
sports 24% −$2
other 21% −$2
economics 5% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -4.1% -13.3% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage215d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $210 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $101 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $1 $0 -24%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 05 $104 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $103 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $104 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 26d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 37d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 100d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 103d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 136d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 136d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 141d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 141d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 143d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $104 144d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $104 145d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 146d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $100 147d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $100 148d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $100 150d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $102 151d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $102 153d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $103 154d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $103 154d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 155d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 158d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 158d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $104 159d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 160d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $103 161d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $104 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.25 · official $99.25 (match) · 240 history records