Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1C 0x1c8c…1b8b crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+5%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%120W / 92L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$11
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.1% -32.2% 37% 26% -27.3%
≤30d 212 +53.8% +39.1% 57% 52% -7.8%
≤90d 212 +53.8% +39.1% 57% 52% -7.8%
all 212 +53.8% +39.1% 57% 52% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.1% 52% -7.8%
10% +25.8% 44% -16.6%
15% +13.7% 33% -24.7%
20% +2.5% 16% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses120 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 549 history records