Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c8c…2f0b
crypto · 71 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$254 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$261 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage136d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 69¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $181 $0 −$181 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 51% -13.7%
≤30d 59 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 51% -13.7%
≤90d 59 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 51% -13.7%
all 70 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 53% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 53% -50.3%
10% -15.5% 49% -55.1%
15% -23.7% 34% -59.4%
20% -31.2% 7% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $3.83 (match) · 210 history records