Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c8a…12e4 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (408 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%69W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day408.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (408 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 37% -11.4%
≤30d 116 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 37% -11.4%
≤90d 116 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 37% -11.4%
all 116 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 37% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover408.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 37% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 19% -19.8%
15% -30.7% 8% -27.6%
20% -37.5% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses69 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day408.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records