Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1c7f…25bd other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40 (-6%) realized −$36 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$52
sports 34% +$192
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% +38.2%
≤30d 15 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% +38.2%
≤90d 15 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% +38.2%
all 15 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% +38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 33% +38.2%
10% -37.4% 33% +25.0%
15% -43.4% 33% +12.9%
20% -49.0% 27% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $169 $174 +$5 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $30 $83 +$53 (+178%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $78 $44 −$34 (-44%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 40¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-15%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 32¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$71 +233%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$34 +101%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$71 +187%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 +$20 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes $10 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $34 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 29¢ $31 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 34¢ $38 26h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $71 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.48 · official $416.48 (match) · 35 history records