Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1C 0x1c7f…9603 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$51 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day102.0pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-11.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-2.1%	-11.4%	60%	60%	-9.8%
≤30d	20	-2.1%	-11.4%	60%	60%	-9.8%
≤90d	20	-2.1%	-11.4%	60%	60%	-9.8%
all	20	-2.1%	-11.4%	60%	60%	-9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover102.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-11.4%	60%	-9.8%
10% ← realistic here	-19.9%	45%	-18.4%
15%	-27.6%	25%	-26.3%
20%	-34.7%	10%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$47 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$51

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day102.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 22	$15	−$2	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 22	$56	−$16	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 22	$179	+$78	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 22	$102	−$12	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 22	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$23	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 22	$232	−$232	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$2	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$5	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$21	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$25	+81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 22	$66	−$12	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 22	$52	+$16	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 22	$155	+$91	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 22	$254	+$67	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 22	$61	+$13	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$12	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$18	+36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$6	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$5	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Down	26¢	$2	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$7	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Down	54¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$13	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$25	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Down	19¢	$9	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$18	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Down	84¢	$15	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$25	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$29	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$25	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$27	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$35	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$26	34m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records