Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c7d…b468
sports · 166 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$68 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$5
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses94 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage393d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$4 +21%
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ravens vs. Bills Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Twins vs. Dodgers Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami vs. Florida State Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignon Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Almaty Open: Laslo Djere vs Alexander Shevchenko Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2025-09-04? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ningbo Open, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Tamara Korpatsch Oct 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T Oct 11 $2 $0 +25%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $1 +$2 +212%
Georgia vs. Tennessee Sep 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 07 $1 +$1 +120%
North Texas vs. Western Michigan Sep 07 $1 $0 +27%
North Carolina vs. Charlotte Sep 07 $1 $0 +16%
Boston College vs. Michigan State Sep 07 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $1 $0 +3%
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? Sep 06 $1 $0 +35%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Sep 06 $2 +$1 +30%
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova Sep 05 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Panama win on 2025-09-04? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Sep 04 $1 $0 +43%
Giants vs. Rockies Sep 04 $1 $0 +47%
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Sep 02 $9 +$1 +8%
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka Sep 02 $2 +$1 +43%
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsend Aug 31 $20 −$14 -71%
US Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul Aug 31 $5 +$4 +89%
US Open: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maria Sakkari Aug 31 $5 +$7 +144%
US Open: Jerome Kym vs Taylor Fritz Aug 30 $11 $0 -1%
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez Aug 30 $9 +$2 +16%
Boise State vs. South Florida Aug 29 $1 +$1 +96%
US Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Flavio Cobolli Aug 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Jul 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jul 13 $2 +$2 +92%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $1 $0 -31%
Dodgers vs. Giants Jul 12 $2 +$1 +63%
Wimbledon Final – Anisimova vs. Swiatek Jul 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic Jul 11 $1 −$1 -76%
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Fritz Jul 11 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$38
other 19% −$1
politics 5% −$19
crypto 2% +$5
world 1% −$10
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $5 58m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $24 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $20 6d
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignon BUY Bergs 58¢ $1 242d
Almaty Open: Laslo Djere vs Alexander Shevchenko BUY Djere $1 242d
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single BUY Yes 63¢ $1 245d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T SELL No 100¢ $2 245d
Ningbo Open, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Kessler 56¢ $1 245d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles T BUY No 80¢ $2 246d
Miami vs. Florida State BUY Florida State 51¢ $1 252d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira BUY Pereira 32¢ $1 252d
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi BUY Appalachian State 62¢ $1 273d
Georgia vs. Tennessee BUY Georgia 63¢ $1 273d
Boxing: Will Canelo Álvarez win by Points or Decision? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 273d
Ravens vs. Bills BUY Ravens 40¢ $1 279d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 279d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 279d
Boston College vs. Michigan State BUY Michigan State 62¢ $1 280d
North Carolina vs. Charlotte BUY North Carolina 86¢ $1 280d
North Texas vs. Western Michigan BUY North Texas 79¢ $1 280d
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech BUY Virginia Tech 55¢ $1 280d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 280d
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 281d
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz BUY Alcaraz 77¢ $2 281d
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Anisimova 49¢ $1 282d
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +36.8% +23.8% 100% 100% +16.8%
≤30d 3 +36.8% +23.8% 100% 100% +16.8%
≤90d 3 +36.8% +23.8% 100% 100% +16.8%
all 165 -6.9% -15.7% 57% 52% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 52% -14.5%
10% -23.8% 44% -22.7%
15% -31.2% 34% -30.2%
20% -37.9% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 370 history records