Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c7d…16e5 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$180 (+4%) realized +$218 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.8% -14.7% 56% 47% -9.8%
≤30d 36 -5.8% -14.7% 56% 47% -9.8%
≤90d 36 -5.8% -14.7% 56% 47% -9.8%
all 36 -5.8% -14.7% 56% 47% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 47% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -18.4%
15% -30.4% 28% -26.3%
20% -37.2% 22% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$101 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 44¢ 28¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$17 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $306 +$112 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$32 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$156 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$19 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $202 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $202 +$38 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$66 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$109 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $309 +$92 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $95 −$91 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $106 +$493 +466%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $307 +$170 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$22 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $79 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.18 · official $107.15 · 82 history records