Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

1C 0x1c7d…e056 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$129 (-26%) realized −$193 · open +$64

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%3W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-54.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	+62.9%	+47.4%	75%	75%	+58.2%
all	15	-50.1%	-54.9%	20%	20%	-66.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.9%	20%	-66.6%
10%	-59.2%	20%	-69.8%
15%	-63.1%	20%	-72.7%
20%	-66.7%	20%	-75.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +75% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -86% → late -19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.19 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage

Net worth$311

Realized−$193

Unrealized+$64

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses3 / 12

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage174d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	4¢	$93	$156	+$63 (+68%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$75	$75	−$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kings vs. Hornets	Mar 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Lakers vs. Magic	Mar 24	$10	+$10	+100%
Lakers vs. Pistons	Mar 24	$22	+$18	+82%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Mar 21	$5	+$9	+170%
Thunder vs. Suns	Jan 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Morocco vs. Tanzania end in a draw?	Jan 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04?	Jan 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04?	Jan 04	$20	−$20	-100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-03?	Jan 03	$20	−$20	-100%
Nuggets vs. Raptors	Dec 31	$20	−$1	-3%
Will Sudan win on 2025-12-31?	Dec 31	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01?	Dec 31	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	Dec 28	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29?	Dec 28	$56	−$56	-100%
Nuggets vs. Magic	Dec 27	$19	−$19	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$36	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	3d
Kings vs. Hornets	BUY Kings	7¢	$5	86d
Lakers vs. Pistons	BUY Pistons	55¢	$22	89d
Lakers vs. Magic	BUY Lakers	43¢	$5	89d
Lakers vs. Magic	BUY Lakers	60¢	$5	89d
Thunder vs. Suns	BUY Thunder	77¢	$10	166d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	BUY Pistons	37¢	$5	166d
Will Morocco vs. Tanzania end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	166d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	166d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04?	BUY Yes	37¢	$20	166d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-03?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	167d
Nuggets vs. Raptors	SELL Nuggets	30¢	$19	170d
Will Sudan win on 2025-12-31?	BUY Yes	14¢	$20	170d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	170d
Nuggets vs. Raptors	BUY Nuggets	31¢	$20	170d
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29?	BUY Yes	36¢	$56	173d
Nuggets vs. Magic	BUY Nuggets	62¢	$19	174d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$20	174d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.36 · official $298.73 · 35 history records