Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c7d…0291 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$12 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$28
14 days+$1
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$65
other 38% +$2
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.4% +18.0% 43% 43% +43.0%
≤30d 67 +20.2% +8.8% 36% 36% -2.7%
≤90d 70 +22.8% +11.1% 36% 36% -0.9%
all 70 +22.8% +11.1% 36% 36% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 36% -0.9%
10% +0.5% 36% -10.4%
15% -9.2% 36% -19.0%
20% -18.1% 33% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage54d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+103%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$36 +234%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$4 +216%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? Jun 25 $13 −$2 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 +$6 +196%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$6 +101%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $8 +$6 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 +$13 +323%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$9 +262%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$21 +419%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$14 +182%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$10 +234%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $6 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $6 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 31¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 4d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $4 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 41¢ $3 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 10d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 10d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 10d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 10d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.95 · official $30.95 (match) · 137 history records