Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c78…fe73 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 24% $0
finance 12% +$2
politics 11% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 40% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 8% -8.7%
all 40 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage468d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $42 −$3 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $30 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -10%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $1 $0 -33%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $13 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bronny score a point against the Celtics? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $50 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $50 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $13 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $9 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $35 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $43 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.30 · official $45.30 (match) · 124 history records