Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c74…0d16 sports 467 markets active 14h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$580 (+1%) realized +$580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%212W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$718est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$317
14 days−$317
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,060
other 7% −$1,074
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -14.8% -22.9% 49% 28% -12.3%
≤30d 117 -5.6% -14.6% 46% 28% -11.5%
≤90d 376 -10.2% -18.8% 43% 31% -7.9%
all 467 -7.8% -16.6% 45% 33% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 33% -7.6%
10% -24.5% 26% -16.4%
15% -31.8% 17% -24.5%
20% -38.5% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses212 / 255
Est. fees paid−$718
Open positions0
Markets (closed)467 / 467
History coverage179d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 467 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $261 −$133 -51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $218 −$103 -47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $281 −$83 -30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $350 −$97 -28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $654 +$22 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $83 +$2 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $432 +$91 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $71 +$28 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 −$11 -26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $111 −$14 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $117 −$7 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $237 +$114 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $314 +$115 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $240 +$30 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 +$1 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $255 −$99 -39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $315 +$37 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $168 +$75 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $230 −$42 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $834 +$100 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $283 +$53 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $46 +$10 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $212 −$33 -16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $95 −$12 -13%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $272 −$126 -46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $385 +$35 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $170 +$18 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $109 −$28 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $482 +$24 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $46 +$53 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $353 −$78 -22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $418 −$97 -23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $68 −$66 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $285 −$7 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $87 −$6 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $109 +$24 +22%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $594 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $155 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $11 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $8 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $10 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $10 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $2 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $10 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $10 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $24 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $25 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 38¢ $3 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 38¢ $22 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $15 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $5 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $14 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $19 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $35 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $24 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $62 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2577 history records